837
FXUS62 KCAE 172332
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
732 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE #1 TWEAKED A LITTLE BIT TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS TONIGHT. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT & MAY HARM
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT & MAY HARM
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND SET US UP
FOR A COLD NIGHT AHEAD. A COMBINATION OF SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL HELP
OFFSET LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, SO FAR FROM A TRULY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP BUT THE AIRMASS IN GENERAL IS COLD-DRY; TEMPS THIS
EVENING ARE IN THE UPPER 40'S WITH DEW POINTS BELOW 20 F.
REGARDLESS, WITH THE INITIAL CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AFTER SUNSET, SOME SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
REMAIN LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NBM MEAN IS AROUND 30 F FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH DOES A FAIRLY REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING
THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, THE LATEST GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE NBM AND HRRR HAVE THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVING AN HOUR
OR TWO SOONER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, WHICH COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL COOLING TONIGHT. NONETHELESS, KEEPING THE FORECAST LOWS
THE SAME FOR NOW AS TEMPS SHOULD STILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES. THESE TEMPS SHOULD TAPER OFF AS CLOUDS
MOVE IN, BUT HOW COLD IT GETS WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE
ARRIVAL OF THESE CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AFTER
ABOUT 13Z, WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE, GENERALLY 5-8 KTS. THE CURRENT CLEAR SKIES AT THE
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...29/42
AVIATION...29
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