579
FXUS62 KCAE 180607
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
207 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT & MAY HARM
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT & MAY HARM
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND SET US UP
FOR A COLD NIGHT AHEAD. A COMBINATION OF SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL HELP
OFFSET LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, SO FAR FROM A TRULY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP BUT THE AIRMASS IN GENERAL IS COLD-DRY; TEMPS THIS
EVENING ARE IN THE UPPER 40'S WITH DEW POINTS BELOW 20 F.
REGARDLESS, WITH THE INITIAL CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AFTER SUNSET, SOME SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
REMAIN LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NBM MEAN IS AROUND 30 F FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH DOES A FAIRLY REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING
THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, THE LATEST GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE NBM AND HRRR HAVE THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVING AN HOUR
OR TWO SOONER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, WHICH COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL COOLING TONIGHT. NONETHELESS, KEEPING THE FORECAST LOWS
THE SAME FOR NOW AS TEMPS SHOULD STILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES. THESE TEMPS SHOULD TAPER OFF AS CLOUDS
MOVE IN, BUT HOW COLD IT GETS WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE
ARRIVAL OF THESE CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER 5 KTS ARE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS GOING CALM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING THE UPSTATE, AND THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER
13-15Z, NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP AROUND 5-8 KTS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THESE WINDS
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...EC/42
AVIATION...DH
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