680
FXUS62 KCAE 180801
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
401 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING MAY HARM SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.
- 2. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK BUT HAZARDOUS WEATHER UNLIKELY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING MAY HARM
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SC AND THE CSRA HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SITES INTO THE UPPER 20S. WE WILL
HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES RECOVER SOMEWHAT.
EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS PROMOTING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY
MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND COULD LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. SW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHICH MAY LEAD TO
PATCHY FROST EVEN IF TEMPERATURES DON'T DROP BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING OR A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A HEADLINE AT THE MOMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK BUT HAZARDOUS WEATHER
UNLIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MAY BACKDOOR
INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
MOVES. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER 5 KTS ARE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS GOING CALM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING THE UPSTATE, AND THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER
13-15Z, NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP AROUND 5-8 KTS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THESE WINDS
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...DH
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