852
FXUS62 KCAE 181836
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
236 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S LEADING TO AREAS OF FROST. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING.
- 2. WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT. HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY. AFTER MIDNIGHT, CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CLEARS SKIES OUT
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FROST TO
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY NEAR SUNRISE, ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE MARGINAL. WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING RELATIVELY LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATING AIR MASS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
1AM TO 9AM THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 33-
36F, ALTHOUGH SOME TYPICAL COLD SPOTS MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS, CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWING RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN IQR OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES. BY SUNDAY,
NAEFS MEAN INDICATES THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD,
GENERALLY MID 80S. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS WELL INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH BETWEEN 50-70% OF GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE
OVERALL, BLENDED POPS REMAIN LOW, MAINLY OWING TO LIMITED FORCING
WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM THIS WEEKEND. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT LEADING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SATELLITE SHOWING MAINLY A FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN LOW-LEVELS THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS. SHOULD BE A LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO GET CLOSE TO SATURATION, SO VFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED EVEN NEAR AREA RIVERS. WINDS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY ONCE MIXING FINALLY BEGINS, WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT
BUT MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...CAL
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