987
FXUS62 KCAE 182353
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING.
- 2. WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT. HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY. AFTER MIDNIGHT, CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CLEARS SKIES OUT
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FROST TO
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY NEAR SUNRISE, ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE MARGINAL. WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING RELATIVELY LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATING AIR MASS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
1AM TO 9AM THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 33-
36F, ALTHOUGH SOME TYPICAL COLD SPOTS MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS, CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWING RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN IQR OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES. BY SUNDAY,
NAEFS MEAN INDICATES THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD,
GENERALLY MID 80S. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS WELL INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH BETWEEN 50-70% OF GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE
OVERALL, BLENDED POPS REMAIN LOW, MAINLY OWING TO LIMITED FORCING
WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM THIS WEEKEND. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT LEADING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT....
A LARGE SWATH OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE MVFR HEIGHTS AND CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN RATHER DRY AND FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT, DESPITE SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS REMAIN LOW
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES, AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS, INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...7
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