724
FXUS62 KCAE 191012
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
612 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S POSSIBLE AS CLEARING SKIES
TAKING PLACE.
- 2. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S POSSIBLE AS CLEARING
SKIES TAKING PLACE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION AND DUE TO THIS, ALONG WITH NEAR CALM WINDS,
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FELL OVER THE LAST 2-4 HOURS IN THE
NORTHERN FA TOWARD THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE COMING HOURS ACROSS THE FA WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO RECOVERED NICELY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON,
TOWARD THE LOWER 30S, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. WITH THESE CONDITIONS, THE FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM ACROSS THE WHOLE FA,
THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT A COUPLE SPOTS SETTLE RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING. THE ONLY COMPLICATING FACTOR IS SOME CIRRUS IS SEEN
ENTERING BACK TOWARD KENTUCKY AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE, THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THESE
CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR ANOTHER 3-6 HOURS, GIVING
SUFFICIENT TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP AMID THESE NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. A ROBUST UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH THIS RIDGE ARE AT THE
NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
AS TROUGHING EXITS THE EASTERN US, THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE 80S BY SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THIS COMES AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES REACH THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE BY SATURDAY,
BUT NEAR THE 97TH AND 99TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BOTH GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT'S REACHING NEAR 150% OF NORMAL
SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY WEEK, WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD MONDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AS SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT LREF
CLUSTERS WHERE ONE FAVORS THE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THE
MORNING, TWO FAVOR IT MOVING IN TOWARD THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THE LAST CLUSTER DOES NOT HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS, A A 6-8 DEGREE IQR
RANGE STILL EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY (THOUGH THIS IS
IMPROVED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS). THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
ALSO BRING INTO QUESTION PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT, BUT AT
THIS TIME AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP'S SEEM REASONABLE.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AREA OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK HAS MOVED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING, AND WILL LIKELY BE WITH
US INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE BROKEN AT TIMES, BUT CIGS
WILL BE 12K FEET OR HIGHER, SO NO PROBLEM AT THE TERMINALS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LIGHT SIDE (< 5 KNOTS) WITH
SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED RIGHT OVER THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SIMILARLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS ON FRIDAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF MORNING
STRATUS AND FOG, AS WELL AS WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS,
BUT BUT CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL NOT TOO HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY, INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...FA
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