376
FXUS62 KCAE 200416
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1216 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRONG RIDGING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A
REMARKABLY LARGE FOOTPRINT OF EFI GREATER THAN 0.99 FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE ROCKIES. AS THIS
RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST, A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY TOMORROW,
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAEFS MEAN HAS TRENDED A BIT HIGHER
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND, ONCE AGAIN ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
TO MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH ALONG WITH A LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE,
GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD LEAD
TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS WEEKEND BUT BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED SLOWER WITH A
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH A
BIT LATER AND FARTHER EAST. THIS HAS LED TO MORE CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES MONDAY REMAINING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE ALSO TRENDING DRIER WITH THE FRONT ITSELF WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
A REACTIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVERHEAD AT THE TERMINALS. NEAR CALM WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... ON SATURDAY, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE
A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR ANY IMPACT
AT THE TERMINALS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS. OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY VFR FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...FA
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