495
FXUS62 KCAE 200628
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
228 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND INTO
THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT MOVES IN.
- 2. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY BEFORE A
WEAK FRONT MOVES IN.
THE ROBUST 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS TROUGHING PUSHES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY EXPANDS
EASTWARD, 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF 3-4DM/12HR ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 10C AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS
SET UP WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE 850MB TEMPS REACH TOWARD THE NAEFS 90TH
PERCENTILE SATURDAY, AND THE 99TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES GENERALLY CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BEFORE
WARMING A BIT FURTHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHERE TEMPERATURES
COULD BE NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN THIS WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS GLOBAL
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT UNTIL LATER MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS
IS SEEN IN NBM IQR RANGES FOR TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NOW LESS
THAN 4 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN THE EC EFI WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 0.70-0.90 SEEN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SOME ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
WEAK FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN GUIDANCE TOWARD FAVORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT THAT A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
WILL ROUND THE RIDGE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WORKING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THERE ALSO IS A
SIGNAL THAT A FAIRLY WASHED OUT FRONT COULD APPROACH THE PEE DEE
AS WELL. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON THE REGION, ENHANCED
MID LEVEL FLOW AIDS IN GENERATING INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PWAT'S TOPPING OUT NEAR 1.25". GREATER SURFACE CONVERGENCE
IS ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS THE FA AS THE DIFFUSE FRONT NEARS THE PEE
DEE, THUS RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS AND THE 00Z HREF INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ALL THINGS CONSIDERED
WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY UNDER 1000 J/KG (THOUGH THE LATEST HRW-
NSSL IS CLOSER TO 1500 J/KG) AND THE WEAK SHORTWAVE, WHILE
BRINGING SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR INITIATION, DOES NOT BRING
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH IT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY
UNDER 30 KTS. THIS GOES TO SAY, THERE LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT
FORCING AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS, BUT COVERAGE IS LOOKING TO BE LIMITED. A STRONG
INVERTED V IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES YIELD 700-900 J/KG OF
DCAPE SO THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS QUITE LIMITED.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
A REACTIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVERHEAD AT THE TERMINALS. NEAR CALM WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... ON SATURDAY, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE
A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR ANY IMPACT
AT THE TERMINALS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS. OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY VFR FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...FA
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