878
FXUS62 KCAE 211817
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1: ONLY A FEW STORMS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE, LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG-SEVERE.
- 2. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A FRONT MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONLY A FEW STORMS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE, LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG-SEVERE.
A LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT THIS SHORTWAVE TO CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA AS EXPECTED, WHICH
LOOKS WEAK, BUT MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INTO
THE PEEDEE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CIRRUS; HOWEVER, THE LATEST IMAGES DO SHOW THIS CIRRUS
DECK IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND HEATING CAN BREAK THROUGH
THOSE CLOUDS. SHOULD ENOUGH SUN PEEK OUT, SURFACE CAPE VALUES
COULD APPROACH THE 700-1000 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED V
PROFILE, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT CLT AS SEEN ON
ACARS SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 6-7 DEGREES C/KM, WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE SAME. THIS ALONG WITH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9,000 FT INDICATE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG WITH BORDERLINE
PARAMETERS, THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER SEEMS REASONABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A FRONT MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.
NO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY-MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. NAEFS MEAN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE THE 99TH TO
99.5TH PERCENTILE. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH DAILY RECORDS THROUGH
SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY, LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY COLD, SO FROST OR
FREEZE ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST WINDS, WE ARE
ENTERING A PERIOD OF INCREASING FIRE DANGER CONCERNS GIVEN THE
LINGERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, WITH MAX WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH
SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH CIRRUS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAN TO RULE OUT A FEW OR
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING THROUGH SUNSET, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL NOT IMPACT CAE/CUB/OGB, SO DID NOT MENTION AT ANY OF
THOSE SITE. BIGGEST IMPACT MAY BE ADDITIONAL THICKER CIRRUS, AND/OR
A BRIEF WIND SHIFT ALONG A DYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE THIS EVENING.
NO IMPACTS AT AGS/DNL WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY EITHER. WIND WILL
BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH SUNSET BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS THEN SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. ANOTHER INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 15Z SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS.
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY VFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page