495
FXUS62 KCAE 212348
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN FA THIS EVENING, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS WANING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1: SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
- 2. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE A FRONT MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPSTATE AS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A LONE SHOWER MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
FAIRFIELD COUNTY AT THIS TIME. NOW THAT THE SUN IS SETTING, THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL QUICKLY WANE BUT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN FA THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
COLUMBIA METRO AREA THOUGH A REMNANT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A FRONT MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.
NO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY-MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. NAEFS MEAN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE THE 99TH TO
99.5TH PERCENTILE. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH DAILY RECORDS THROUGH
SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY, LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY COLD, SO FROST OR
FREEZE ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST WINDS, WE ARE
ENTERING A PERIOD OF INCREASING FIRE DANGER CONCERNS GIVEN THE
LINGERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, WITH MAX WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH
SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
EXPECTED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPSTATE BUT
ARE PROMPTLY WEAKENING AND FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH, TAF SITES SHOULDN'T SEE MUCH OUTSIDE OF
SOME LEFT OVER CLOUD DEBRIS. THERE MAY BE A REMNANT LIGHT SHOWER
THAT IMPACTS CAE/CUB IN A FEW HOURS BUT THIS IS A LOW
PREDICTABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE WAY THESE STORMS HAVE
STRUGGLED THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO HANG AROUND THE
AREA THIS EVENING AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT,
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. EXPECT VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS OF 3-6 KNOTS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS. AS WE GET INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY, BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOOK FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED. ANY CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS.
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY VFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...PL
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