503
FXUS62 KCAE 230001
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY, INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MOVE INTO THE AREA. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR
00Z.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
FRONT THAT BRINGING SOME CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
- 2. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AHEAD
OF A FRONT THAT BRINGING SOME CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS INTO
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO RUN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, PUSHING 90F
IN SOME SPOTS. THE RECORD HIGHS FOR CAE AND AGS ARE 92F FOR TODAY
AND 93F FOR MONDAY FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. WE HAVE A LOW-END CHANCE OF
REACHING THOSE TEMPS TODAY, BUT THINK WE'LL STAY JUST BELOW THAT.
WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, DON'T THINK THE TEMPS
WILL THREATEN THE RECORD.
A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (10-20%) TO THE I-
20 CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THERE. THE SETUP FOR A POTENTIAL
SEVERE STORM REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL SEVERE SETUP WITH NUMEROUS
FACTORS THAT NEED LINE UP SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. IN ADDITION, THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MAY BE
TOO SOON FOR THE INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY
STRONGER CELLS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK
ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE, THE COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIMITED. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUES FOR TOMORROW FOR ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP AND CATCH JUST
THE RIGHT SPOT TO BECOME STRONG. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
FRONT COULD LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY, WHICH BRINGS
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ON MONDAY, MUCH DRIER AIR AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL RH LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS
WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY BEING THE DRIER DAY. WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO GUST TO 20-25 MPH TOMORROW AND CLOSE TO THAT ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE THE RECENT RAINFALL IN SOME SPOTS, FUELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH DAYS.
THAT SAID, WE ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE RH THRESHOLD (30%
OR LESS) FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MONDAY, BUT THE RH LEVELS ARE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. A FASTER FRONT WOULD RESULT IN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON AN FDS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS. ALTHOUGH THE RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER ON
TUESDAY, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN MONDAY. SO, TUESDAY
IS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER MARGINAL DAY FOR AN FDS. EVEN THOUGH WE
AREN'T ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR TOMORROW AT THIS TIME,
CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE.
AFTER TUESDAY, FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND AFTER A "COOL"
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT....
IT'S A TRANQUIL EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO DEPICT A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WITH 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET. WITH THIS IN MIND, ADDED WIND SHEAR TO THE TAFS AT ALL
TERMINALS, DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. WHILE THE WIND SHEAR
THREAT SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION DISSIPATING.
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE
THE CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS LOW, CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT OGB WHERE VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...PL
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