268
FXUS62 KCAE 252334
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
734 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS BACK COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REBOUND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS MOVING IN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS BACK COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REBOUND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WARMING DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY, BEFORE TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH OF 89 DEGREES AT CAE AND AGS WOULD BREAK THE DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 88 DEGREES AT BOTH LOCATIONS.
THERE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AND GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP'S MAINLY
ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (NEAR THE NAEFS
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX) MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
FOLLOWED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS MOVING IN.
AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY, A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE AS ROBUST 1036-1038MB HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO MIDWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY
WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT RAMP UP FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS EVEN FURTHER WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVING CLOSER. THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION SHOWS
A SWATH OF 25-30 MPH GUSTS DURING THIS PERIOD, WHILE THE GEFS IS
A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE, BUT STILL SHOWING GUSTS EXCEEDING 20-25
MPH. THIS SURFACE HIGH ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADA BRINGS A
VERY DRY AIRMASS WHERE LREF PROBABILITIES FOR RH VALUES UNDER
25% EXCEED 60% FOR MUCH OF THE FA. THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE IS A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE, BUT IN GENERAL DISPLAYS A SIMILAR STORY.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT, COINCIDING WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES THAT NEAR OR FALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WHEN THIS IS COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS FROM THE
PROLONGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ENHANCED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE FA IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THEIR LATEST FIRE WEATHER
OUTLOOK ON SATURDAY. NEAR TO BELOW CRITICAL RH VALUES SEEM
LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY, BUT WINDS LOOK TO BE MUCH WEAKER.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE PATTERN HASN'T REALLY CHANGED MUCH FROM YESTERDAY. DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS
SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, WITH MOISTURE FORECAST
TO SLOWLY INCREASE AROUND 925 HPA TONIGHT. AS SUCH, SOME MVFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE
ISN'T HIGH AS GUIDANCE IS PRETTY MIXED ON COVERAGE AND TIMING.
THE SETUP TYPICALLY FAVORS CEILING DEVELOPMENT AND I THINK THAT
WILL BE THE CASE TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY SINCE WE SAW SOME MVFR CIGS
LAST NIGHT). AS WE GET INTO THE DAY TOMORROW, THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC, WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING AND WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. ANY
CEILINGS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/96
AVIATION...PL
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