326
FXUS62 KCAE 260629
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
229 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY. SLIGHT SHIFT IN
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM AGAIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
- 2. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, WITH VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY
WINDS MOVING IN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM AGAIN INTO NEXT
WEEK.
500MB HEIGHT RISES RAMP UP TODAY AND FRIDAY ON THE ORDER OF 2-4
DM/12HR AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EXPANDS EASTWARD. THIS ALONG WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS THAT BREAK INTO THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE WARMING FURTHER FRIDAY. THE EC EFI CONTINUES TO SHOW
VALUES ABOVE 0.90 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY,
DISPLAYING THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH THAT MOVES IN AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES REACH THE NAEFS 99TH PERCENTILE. THE MOST RECENT
NBM RUN AND MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES
THAT REACH/EXCEED RECORD VALUES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 89F AT CAE AND 90F AT
AGS WOULD BREAK THE RECORD OF 88F AT BOTH SITES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE
FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH
THIS FRONT AS EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW PWAT'S
REACHING 150-180% OF NORMAL AHEAD OF THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POP'S ACROSS THE PEE DEE MAINLY LATE FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
SOLID ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT REMAINS THAT ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE
ORIGINATING FROM CANADA MOVES IN, BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INTO THE FA. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL. THIS SURFACE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE
REGION THEN BECOMING CENTERED UNDER A UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BRING A FAMILIAR PATTERN WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES THAT WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, WITH VERY DRY AIR
AND BREEZY WINDS MOVING IN.
MINIMAL CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE OUTLOOK BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT AS VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE REGION
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOLID MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
DEWPOINTS ORIGINALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CRASH INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DISCUSSED IN KEY MESSAGE #1 MOVES CLOSER. THE STRONGEST
NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS APPEAR TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY,
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW WHERE AN ISOLATED GUST PUSHING 35 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS DEW POINTS QUICKLY FALL, RH VALUES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20%, POSSIBLY A BIT
LOWER IN SOME SPOTS. DUE TO THIS, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LINGER AS THERE
MAY NOT BE A "PERFECT" OVERLAP OF THE LOWEST RH VALUES AND
STRONGEST WINDS, BUT EITHER WAY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE
FOR FIRE SPREAD WILL BE IN PLACE. SPC HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA
HIGHLIGHTING THE FA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THEIR LATEST FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY.
THE MAIN SHIFT IN GUIDANCE COMES SUNDAY, WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY, AIDING IN
BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE AREA. DESPITE SLIGHTLY
GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT AND MUCH WEAKER WINDS, MINIMUM RH
VALUES COULD STILL NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN
FA SO CAUTION WILL STILL NEED TO BE TAKEN FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT
COULD SPARK A FIRE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH SUNRISE
THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST, WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING, BRINGING SOME MOISTURE
INLAND. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME LOW END VFR/UPPER END MVFR CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. MAJORITY OF THE MORNING
SHOULD REMAIN VFR, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION, ESPECIALLY THE CLOSER TO SUNRISE WE GET. AFTER
SUNRISE, ONCE BETTER MIXING BEGINS ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR
CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MORE SCATTERED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CAL
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