414
FXUS62 KCAE 261207
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
807 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM AGAIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
- 2. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, WITH VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY
WINDS MOVING IN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM AGAIN INTO NEXT
WEEK.
500MB HEIGHT RISES RAMP UP TODAY AND FRIDAY ON THE ORDER OF 2-4
DM/12HR AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EXPANDS EASTWARD. THIS ALONG WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS THAT BREAK INTO THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE WARMING FURTHER FRIDAY. THE EC EFI CONTINUES TO SHOW
VALUES ABOVE 0.90 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY,
DISPLAYING THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH THAT MOVES IN AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES REACH THE NAEFS 99TH PERCENTILE. THE MOST RECENT
NBM RUN AND MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES
THAT REACH/EXCEED RECORD VALUES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 89F AT CAE AND 90F AT
AGS WOULD BREAK THE RECORD OF 88F AT BOTH SITES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE
FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH
THIS FRONT AS EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW PWAT'S
REACHING 150-180% OF NORMAL AHEAD OF THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POP'S ACROSS THE PEE DEE MAINLY LATE FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
SOLID ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT REMAINS THAT ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE
ORIGINATING FROM CANADA MOVES IN, BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INTO THE FA. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL. THIS SURFACE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE
REGION THEN BECOMING CENTERED UNDER A UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BRING A FAMILIAR PATTERN WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES THAT WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, WITH VERY DRY AIR
AND BREEZY WINDS MOVING IN.
MINIMAL CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE OUTLOOK BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT AS VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE REGION
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOLID MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
DEWPOINTS ORIGINALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CRASH INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DISCUSSED IN KEY MESSAGE #1 MOVES CLOSER. THE STRONGEST
NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS APPEAR TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY,
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW WHERE AN ISOLATED GUST PUSHING 35 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS DEW POINTS QUICKLY FALL, RH VALUES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20%, POSSIBLY A BIT
LOWER IN SOME SPOTS. DUE TO THIS, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LINGER AS THERE
MAY NOT BE A "PERFECT" OVERLAP OF THE LOWEST RH VALUES AND
STRONGEST WINDS, BUT EITHER WAY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE
FOR FIRE SPREAD WILL BE IN PLACE. SPC HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA
HIGHLIGHTING THE FA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THEIR LATEST FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY.
THE MAIN SHIFT IN GUIDANCE COMES SUNDAY, WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY, AIDING IN
BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE AREA. DESPITE SLIGHTLY
GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT AND MUCH WEAKER WINDS, MINIMUM RH
VALUES COULD STILL NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN
FA SO CAUTION WILL STILL NEED TO BE TAKEN FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT
COULD SPARK A FIRE.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY....
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST, WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. AFTER STARTING OFF MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL INCREASE WHILE
SHIFTING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING, BRINGING SOME
MOISTURE INLAND. AS EXPECTED, MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS PREVENTED
RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS THUS THE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN
REMOVED WITH THE 12Z UPDATE. SCT TO BKN DECKS SHOULD TRANSITION
TO MORE SCT DECKS AS THE DAY GOES ON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...7
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