919
FXUS62 KCAE 271027
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AS CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS STRONG WINDS MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z AVIATION
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
COUPLE SHOWERS.
- 2. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW ISSUED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE, WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NAEFS 99TH
PERCENTILE, AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A COUPLE SPOTS REACHING 90 POSSIBLE. THE RECORD
AT BOTH CAE/AGS IS 88F AND BOTH OF THESE RECORDS MAY BE IN
JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR BOTH SITES
AT 89F. THE LATEST NBM EVEN HAS ITS 25TH PERCENTILE MAX
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON TYING THE RECORD. AFTER THESE NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES, THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT APPROACHES
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. PWAT'S SHOULD REACH 1.20-1.40"
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THE 00Z HREF INDICATES A COUPLE SHOWERS
OR EVEN A WEAK STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY TOWARD
THE PEE DEE, BUT MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE DRY
SIDE. THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG CAA THAT
ENSUES BEHIND IT, BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
YIELD WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
BEHIND IT, CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH
SEEM REASONABLE CONSIDERING RECENT RRFS/HRRR OUTPUT. DUE TO
THIS, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, UNTIL 2 PM SATURDAY.
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF SATURDAY AS A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ROBUST CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FEATURE NEAR THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX WILL AID IN
USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND REMAINING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. AFTER THIS,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD BRING CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THAT RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW ISSUED.
CONFIDENCE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT ROBUST CAA AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD AID IN BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT GUST UP TO 25-35 MPH STARTING LATE TONIGHT,
CONTINUING MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LAG IN
CRASHING DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT, DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY
APPROACH THE 20S DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY, BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO YIELD RH VALUES THAT FALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES BY
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING. THE STRONGEST SURGE OF CAA AND WINDS APPEARS
TO COME OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THUS NOT BRINGING IDEAL
OVERLAP WITH THE LOWEST RH VALUES, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A
COUPLE HOUR WINDOW DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH CONDITIONS NEARING RED FLAG CRITERIA. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THIS
WINDOW, RH VALUES THAT COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS, WITH
LINGERING WIND GUSTS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
FIRE SPREAD SHOULD ONE START. ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST REFS
SHOWS MUCH OF THE FA WITH PROBABILITIES FOR RH LESS THAN 25% AND
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH NEARING 60-80%.
DUE TO THESE METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS COMBINING WITH VERY DRY
FUELS FROM PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT STARTING 8 AM
SATURDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXTREME CAUTION
WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE
AS THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL BE HIGH, ESPECIALLY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO RECOVER SOME ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
WEAKER WINDS NOW OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT RH VALUES
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 COULD STILL FALL UNDER 30% SO
ELEVATED CONCERNS WILL STILL EXIST.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WIND IS MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNRISE,
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS STILL BEING SHOWN IN
SURFACE OBS. KCAE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED WINDS OFF
THE SURFACE BETWEEN 1-2KFT OF 35-40 KNOTS, AND DUE TO THIS, WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LLWS AROUND 1.5 KFT FOR WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND 40 KNOTS AT ALL SITES. THIS SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 14-15Z WHEN BETTER MIXING WILL BEGIN TO BRING UP SURFACE
WINDS AND INCREASE THE WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN
02Z-06Z WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, WITH GOOD MIXING AND DRIER LOW-LEVELS DUE TO THIS
MIXING, VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN P6SM AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL VFR CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z AT ALL SITES AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CAL
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