532
FXUS62 KCAE 280010
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
810 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS,
WITH A STEADILY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AHEAD.
WINDS THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GUST OVER 20
MPH AS A RESULT, OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH STRONGER GUSTS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE 850MB JET BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY MORNING; THESE GUSTS WILL STEADILY WEAKEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG WITH THE GUSTS, EXTREMELY
DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW POINTS DIPPING
DOWN INTO THE TEENS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SATURDAY. WITH SOME
WARMING TEMPS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THIS WILL PUSH RH'S
DOWN BELOW 20% IN MOST SPOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE MORNING WHILE THE LOWEST RH'S WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BUT STILL, A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 25+ MPH WINDS AND
RH LESS 25% IS EXPECTED STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE DEW POINT RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP TICK RH'S BACK TO AROUND 30%
ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING, SC AND GA HAVE ISSUED
BURN BAN NOTICES STARTING THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS AND A SHIFT TO
THE NORTHERLIES TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. IT
WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z WITH WINDS
SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
ONLY SOME MID-LEVEL STRATOCU IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WIND GUSTS MAY PICK UP AS THE
FRONT PASSES WITH VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. STRONGER AND
MORE CONSISTENT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z SATURDAY WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 25 KTS BEFORE STEADILY WEAKENING INTO THE
EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP BY LATE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...CJR
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