020
FXUS62 KCAE 281846
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
246 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSION ABOUT ONGOING FIRE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
FROST POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
LIKELY SUNDAY.
- 2. A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ENTERING THE
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
LIKELY SUNDAY.
ONGOING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING. AS OF 2PM, RH'S HAVE DROPPED TO
AROUND 20% ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS. WIND GUSTS PEAKED THIS MORNING AROUND 35 MPH AND HAVE
SINCE STEADILY WEAKENED, WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AS
OF 2PM. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE RH'S DROPPING A BIT
LOWER, TO AROUND 15-20%. WINDS WILL STEADILY WEAKER THROUGH
SUNSET, AND THEN REMAIN AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN HOWEVER, SO SUSTAINED AND GUSTS WILL BE LIGHTER ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 20 MPH. RH'S WILL
REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REGION, BUT SOME RECOVERY IS LIKELY TO OUR
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. OVERALL, THIS WILL LEAD NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS GIVEN THE FUEL DRYNESS BUT A RED FLAG
WARNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY.
AS A REMINDER, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING, SC AND
GA HAVE ISSUED BURN BAN NOTICES THAT ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ENTERING THE
FORECAST.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEARBY. WHILE NOT
AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH SOME LINGERING WINDS,
WE WILL STILL DIP DOWN INTO THE 30'S ACROSS THE AREA. THE PEE
DEE WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW
30'S GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH AND EXPECTED LIGHTER WINDS.
HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
TONIGHT, THIS MAKES FROST FORMATION DIFFICULT ALONG WITH DRY
SOIL MOISTURE. BUT, ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS WILL GET
TO NEAR FREEZING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS TONIGHT WITHIN THE
COUNTY. SO WHILE A BIT OF COMPROMISE, A FROST ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL AND HEADLINE THE IMPACTS TO
VEGETATION GIVEN THAT WE ARE WITHIN THE GROWING SEASON NOW.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING HEADING INTO THE WEEK, AS A
FAMILIAR PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AS UPPER RIDGING NEAR THE NAEFS
90TH PERCENTILE MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY
SHIFTING OFF SHORE. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES THAT WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT AS THE FA FINDS ITSELF ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY ON THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BY LATE
TUESDAY, MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN TO THE AREA WITH GEFS AND EC
ENSEMBLE PWAT'S REACHING ABOVE 150% BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT NEARING THE SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK COULD BRING BACK RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE THE ONLY MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE, WITH
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS, SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS, CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE STEADILY
WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. BY SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS. SOME MID-
LEVEL CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY RETURNS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP BY LATE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ016.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...42
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