941
FXUS62 KCAE 291036
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIMITED CHANGES TO FORECAST KEY MESSAGES. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING WITH SOME FROST
POTENTIAL, WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOP MIDWEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS LIKELY TODAY.
- 2. A CHILLY MORNING, BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ENTERING THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS LIKELY TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. AS IT DOES, WINDS SHIFT TO
MORE EASTERLY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO A
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED BUT
STILL REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, FUELS REMAIN
INCREDIBLY DRY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN
PLACE FOR THE DAY.
AS A REMINDER, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
TODAY, SC AND GA HAVE BURN BANS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A CHILLY MORNING, BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ENTERING THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IS LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. IN ADDITION
TO THE CLEAR SKIES, VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY. TEMPS ARE DROPPING THE QUICKEST
IN AREAS WITH NO WIND. REGARDLESS, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE
PEEDEE, A FEW AREAS OF FROST REMAIN POSSIBLE, SO A FROST ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF HOW MUCH FROST
DOES DEVELOP DUE TO HOW DRY THE AIR IS.
AFTER THIS MORNING, BROAD RIDGING TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA, EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE 90-97.5TH PERCENTILE LATER THIS
WEEK LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE SLIDES OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK.
MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE HIGH OVER US IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE
OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT, OVERALL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY,
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES BEGIN
INCREASING TO ABOUT 150% OF NORMAL LATER THIS WEEK. WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WARM TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS OR STORMS ARRIVES AROUND MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. A FEW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND 4-5KFT
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CSRA NEAR AGS/DNL AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN INLAND FROM THE COAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS
THIS MOISTURE MOVES INLAND FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS MORNING,
THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST BY LATER IN THE DAY TODAY. SPEEDS
LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, THEN LIGHTER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. WITH DRY LOW-LEVELS AND AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING, FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THEN RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP BY MID WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CAL
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