912
FXUS62 KCAE 291655
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1255 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIMITED CHANGES TO FORECAST KEY MESSAGES, WITH FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. AVIATION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
- 2. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS-STORMS ENTERING THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING.
AS OF 1PM, WINDS HAVE TURNED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD. THE AIRMASS HOWEVER STILL REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH RH'S
DOWN AROUND 30%, AND LIKELY FALLING INTO THE MID-20%'S THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY GUSTED 15-20 MPH
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SO, GIVEN THE FUEL
SITUATIONS, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL STEADILY
MOISTEN LOW LEVELS UP AND KEEP MINIMUM RH'S AROUND 40% ON MONDAY
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS.
AS A REMINDER, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
TODAY, SC AND GA HAVE BURN BANS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS-STORMS ENTERING THE FORECAST.
DEEP PERSISTENT OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
FLOW INTO THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS NOT A REALLY IMPRESSIVE
RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PULL FROM, WE
WILL EVENTUALLY SEE PWAT'S PUSH BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE TYPICAL SURFACE DEW POINTS, LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE A SIMILAR STORY,
CLIMBING ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY AND STAYING THERE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NAEFS OUTLOOKS HIGHLIGHT THE PERIOD WELL WITH STEADILY
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT, NEAR SURFACE TEMPS, AND ACROSS THE BOARD
IN MOISTURE. THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH EFFECTIVELY NEUTRAL
FORCING ALOFT BUT DIURNAL HEATING WILL PUSH US CLOSE TO
CONVECTIVE TEMPS EACH DAY. SO RAIN CHANCES TICK UP STARTING
TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT ONLY SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON A GIVEN DAY. A COUPLE OF MID-
LEVEL TROUGHS START TO ERODE THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BY LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND, SO MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BECOMES POSSIBLE SATURDAY-SUNDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
MID-LEVEL STRATO-CU AND 5-10 KNOT SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME
VFR STRATO-CU LINGERING OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SUNRISE
MIFG AT AGS GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY FOR MONDAY BUT AGAIN
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, 5-10 KNOTS. SOME ADDITIONAL MID- LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN MID-WEEK. SOME MORNING STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AS A RESULT BUT NO NOTABLE WEATHER
SYSTEMS OR WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page