037
FXUS62 KCAE 300044
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
844 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.
DEEP PERSISTENT OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
FLOW INTO THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS NOT A REALLY IMPRESSIVE
RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PULL FROM, WE
WILL EVENTUALLY SEE PWAT'S PUSH BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE TYPICAL SURFACE DEW POINTS, LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE A SIMILAR STORY,
CLIMBING ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY AND STAYING THERE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NAEFS OUTLOOKS HIGHLIGHT THE PERIOD WELL WITH STEADILY
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT, NEAR SURFACE TEMPS, AND ACROSS THE BOARD
IN MOISTURE. THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH EFFECTIVELY NEUTRAL
FORCING ALOFT BUT DIURNAL HEATING WILL PUSH US CLOSE TO
CONVECTIVE TEMPS EACH DAY. SO RAIN CHANCES TICK UP STARTING
TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT ONLY SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON A GIVEN DAY. A COUPLE OF MID-
LEVEL TROUGHS START TO ERODE THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BY LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND, SO MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BECOMES POSSIBLE SATURDAY-SUNDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS LIKELY TO HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY 15Z PICKING UP TO
AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. CONTINUE ONSHORE
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE SUPPORTING
SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS IN A MIX OF STRATOCUMULUS AND SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POSSIBLE BRIEF RIVER VALLEY
FOG AT AGS BUT WITH INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES BUT NO NOTABLE
WEATHER SYSTEMS OR WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...23
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