453
FXUS62 KCAE 301056
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
656 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE,
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP, STRENGTHENING THE
RIDGE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE SAME PLACE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, MORE
MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH
SHOULD HELP REDUCE SOME OF THE WILDFIRE RISK. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY
~20F HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
150% OR GREATER OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
WHILE NOT MUCH SYNOPTIC OR MESOSCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO REACH THE
RESPECTIVE CONVECTIVE TEMP EACH DAY, MAINLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. THAT SAID, ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED ANY GIVEN DAY. AN APPROACHING FRONT TOWARD THE
WEEKEND COULD BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY THIS MORNING KEEPING WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY 15Z
PICKING UP TO AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC.
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE BOTH FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WILL KEEP INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA,
SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS IN A MIX OF
STRATOCUMULUS. MORNING SATELLITE SHOWING THIS QUITE CLEARLY,
WITH MID-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE CSRA AND JUST
WEST OF THE MIDLANDS SITES. BY 12Z THOUGH, THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE OVERSPREADING CAE/CUB, AND SHOULD BE CLOSING IN ON OGB.
CEILINGS GENERALLY 6-7KFT, SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL
AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE MORE BREAKS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES BUT NO NOTABLE
WEATHER SYSTEMS OR WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CAL
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