039
FXUS62 KCAE 010022
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES REMAIN THE SAME AS THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK IS ON
TRACK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THERE
IS LITTLE SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION. STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE
THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC, WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE. ALOFT, THE RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH
SATURDAY, AMPLIFYING AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALL OF THIS TO
SAY, OUR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET. WE ARE
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING FRIDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ALONG WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING AS WELL. WITH PWAT'S ONLY RISING TO 1.25-1.5" ALONG
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE MAXIMUMS BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG EACH
DAY, COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED AS THE MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL GENERALLY SUPPRESS INITIATION. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE GREATER AS
WELL. OVERALL, TEMPS LOOK 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD BUT SOME
RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SATELLITE SHOWING
CLEARING SKIES AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST FOR POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRATUS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TYPE OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE
10Z-14Z TIME FRAME SO GIVEN LIMITED CONFIDENCE WILL INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS TO COVER THE POSSIBLE
THREAT. DID GO AHEAD AND DECIDE TO GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS
AT FOG PRONE OGB/AGS DUE TO RIVER PROXIMITY AND WINDS
DIMINISHING LATE. OTHERWISE WINDS LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
THEN PICKING BACK UP AT AROUND 6 TO 9 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. EXPECT
SCT TO BKN STRATOCUMULUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE CSRA BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN TERMINAL IMPACTS SO NOT INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE IN PLACE. INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page