804
FXUS62 KCAE 020029
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
829 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFCANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, KEY MESSAGE REMAINS THE
SAME. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD, FURTHER OFFSHORE,
ON FRIDAY LEADING TO INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. SE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW PWAT
VALUES TO INCREASE FROM AROUND 0.75 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.2-1.3
INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING RIDGE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL LEAD ISOLATED OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MUCAPE VALUES RAISE TO AROUND 300-800
J/KG. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW ON BOTH DAYS WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOWN IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICK UP WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GIVE PWAT VALUES ANOTHER BUMP UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW WITH
LIMITED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. THOUGH BLENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN SUPPORT OF LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS, THESE SET UPS WITH WEST
MID- LEVEL WINDS AND LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION TEND TO YIELD
LOW QPF AMOUNTS. NBM PROBABILITY OF QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES REMAINS
BETWEEN 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE FA WITH THE 19Z RUN. HOWEVER,
WE WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LOCALIZED EFFECTS FROM
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGH, THE AREA MAY NOT
RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL WHICH WOULD BE WELCOMED AFTER HAVING THE
THIRD DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD (KCAE).
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
STRATUS/FOG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF INTO THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER THIS EVENING BUT NO REAL THREATS
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN DURING THE 08Z-14Z TIME FRAME FAVORING STRATUS
AT CAE/CUB AND FOG ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 15Z WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 6 TO 10
KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN
PLACE. BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR/DH
AVIATION...23
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