757
FXUS62 KCAE 021101
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
701 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING; KEY MESSAGE
REMAINS THE SAME. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY.
A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY, LIMITING RAIN AND T-STORM CHANCES. MOISTURE INCREASES
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. IN RESPONSE, PWATS
INCREASE FROM ABOUT 0.75" TODAY TO ROUGHLY 1.25" TOMORROW. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MODELS SUGGESTED A BIT MORE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
TOMORROW THAN WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY, WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD
TO MORE COVERAGE (STILL NOT WIDESPREAD BY ANY MEANS) THAN
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND, KEEPING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EACH DAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE AMOUNTS EXPECTED ARE FAR FROM
IMPRESSIVE AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF MOST LOCATIONS SEE A
0.10" OR LESS ON SUNDAY. PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVING, TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. DRIER AIR, CLOSER
TO NORMAL TEMPS, AND QUIET WEATHER RETURN FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE WHICH PREVIOUSLY
FAVORED RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING HAS BACKED OFF, THOUGH SOME
STRATUS MAY STILL AFFECT OGB BRIEFLY. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 15Z, WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD,
AND WINDS WEAKENING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS TONIGHT, BUT WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
BEFORE MENTIONING IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN
PLACE. BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...EC
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