335
FXUS62 KCAE 021832
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
232 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE
TO TREND LOWER THIS WEEKEND BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE INCREASING
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.
- 2. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD, FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION AND PROMOTE
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. WEAK LI VALUES POINT TO LIMITED
UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE EASTERN US ON SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY WITH A SCATTERED LINE OF CONVECTION PRECEDING IT. THIS
SET UP WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT DOES NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
STEADY RAINFALL. IN FACT, THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL WINDS OFTEN LEADS TO A DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOWER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/QPF THAN MODELS SUGGEST. THE MEDIAN QPF
AMOUNT FROM THE NBM REMAINS AROUND 0.2 INCHES OR LOWER. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED, CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WE MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS ABOVE 0.25 OR 0.5 OF AN INCH
BUT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD GET VERY LITTLE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE RAINFALL OUTLOOK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE MAY
SEE AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER RISK NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES SHOULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS DRY AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A DRY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST MID-WEEK WHICH WOULD
BRING GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE NEAR
SUNRISE TOMORROW.
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5KFT ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GENERALLY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO FAVOR RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, HOWEVER, WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND LITTLE TO NO RESTRICTIONS OBSERVED THURSDAY MORNING.
IN GENERAL, PROBABILITIES ARE A BIT HIGHER WITHIN BLENDED
GUIDANCE TO SEE AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH CONFIDENCE STILL LIMITED,
HAVE INCLUDED 6SM AND SCT015 AT ALL TERMINALS TO REFLECT THE
POSSIBILITY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON RESTRICTIONS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN
PLACE. BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...96
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