574
FXUS62 KCAE 030613
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO OUTLOOK OTHER THAN DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE TRENDING A BIT LOWER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.
- 2. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY.
MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD, LEADING TO PWAT'S THAT
RAISE TO 1.10-1.30" AS SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS
UP. DESPITE UPPER SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING, FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
RECENT CAM'S CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LINGERING, CAPPING MUCAPE VALUES TO UNDER 1000 J/KG
EACH AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. DUE TO THIS
LINGERING INVERSION, SHOWER/WEAK STORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON
MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE ISOLATED THAN SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST NBM RUN. EITHER WAY, THE RISK FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS LOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE EASTERN US ON SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY WITH A SCATTERED LINE OF CONVECTION PRECEDING IT. THIS
SET UP WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT DOES NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
STEADY RAINFALL. IN FACT, THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL WINDS OFTEN LEADS TO A DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOWER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/QPF THAN MODELS SUGGEST. THE MEDIAN QPF
AMOUNT FROM THE NBM REMAINS AROUND 0.2 INCHES OR LOWER. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED, CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WE MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS ABOVE 0.25 OR 0.5 OF AN INCH
BUT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD GET VERY LITTLE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE RAINFALL OUTLOOK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE MAY
SEE AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER RISK NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES SHOULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS DRY AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A DRY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST MID-WEEK WHICH WOULD BRING
GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK....
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GUIDANCE
REMAINS BULLISH ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK, WITH A PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WILL BE
FROM HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH MAY
IMPACT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT. A
MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD REDUCE THE THREAT OF FOG.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AND WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. WITH MORE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN A VCSH AND
OMIT ANY THUNDER CHANCES FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE. BETTER CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...7
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