691
FXUS62 KCAE 031830
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
230 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS ON TRACK. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.
- 2. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUN.
UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
GIVING WAY TO A TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT INTO THE EASTERN US.
EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, WEAK LAPSE
RATES DO NOT SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG INTO
THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION WE DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN. NBM MEDIAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE HAD A BIT OF
AN UPTICK IN MEDIAN QPF FOR THE EVENT, NOW CLOSE TO 1/3 TO 1/4
OF AN INCH, WHICH IS ENCOURAGING FOR THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DETAILED IN KM2.
HOWEVER, THE LONGER RANGE CAMS BETTER SHOW THE CONVECTIVE NATURE
OF THE EVENT WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 0.1 INCHES. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
NEXT WEEK.
IF THE RAINFALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, THIS WEEKEND'S
RAINFALL WILL DO LITTLE TO MOISTEN FUELS. A DRY AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RH VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 30
PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS MAY BE ELEVATED
AND GUSTY AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AND WIDELY SCATTERED AS TO NOT
CAUSE RESTRICTIONS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH VERY LOW PROBABILITIES MAINLY
FOR AGS/DNL/OGB BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH, ALTHOUGH HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE AND LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CUMULUS AND SHOWERS
DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS WITHIN GUIDANCE IS HIGHER
FOR SATURDAY MORNING THAN THIS PAST MORNING SO CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH, ALTHOUGH FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR,
ALTHOUGH IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, AT LEAST FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE. BETTER CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...96
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