942
FXUS62 KCAE 040615
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE HAS CHANGED TO THE FORECAST OVERALL. ADJUSTED KEY MESSAGE
2 TO DISCUSS COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.
- 2. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUN.
PERSISTENT SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THIS BERMUDA HIGH HAS CONTINUED TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. PWS ARE IN THE 1.1"-1.3" RANGE AS OF THIS WRITING & ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TOWARDS 1.5" ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
THIS MOISTURE RICH REGIME. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MODEST (AT BEST)
SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE FORECAST TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED
AND WEAK. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL (IF RAIN DOES
FALL). AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN PWS
AROUND 1.5" AHEAD OF SAID FRONT, SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HI-RES
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 14Z
AND 20Z ON SUNDAY, WHICH MAY HAMPER SOME OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR
THE EASTER HOLIDAY. REGARDLESS, STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO YIELD SOME SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL WARM/MOIST PROFILES, MORE FAVORABLE TO
EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN ANY SHOWER/STORM. POPS ARE HIGH FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL FORECAST PRECIP TOTALS REMAIN
PRETTY MODEST, WITH MODEL PROBABILITIES FAVORING 0.1"-0.25"
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP OUR ONGOING
DROUGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
THE AFORMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
THIS IS FORECAST TO ANCHOR INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AS PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE HANGS AROUND THE NE CONUS FOR MUCH OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST SHOT SHOULD HELP TEMPS FALL BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S MON/TUES. BUT A SECOND SHOT OF COOL AND
DRY AIR ARRIVES WED/THUR ASSOCIATED WITH A SEASONALLY STRONG
SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA. ENSEMBLE & AI GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SURFACE HIGH, WITH >1032 HPA
SURFACE PRESSURES FORECAST. IN BOTH NAEFS AND LREF GUIDANCE,
THIS PLACES THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SO COOL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY, MODERATING SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEK APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT US FROM SEEING
A NIGHT WHERE TEMPS DIP INTO THE 30S, THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THAT GIVEN HOW LOW DEWPOINTS LOOK TO DIP.
SPEAKING OF THAT, TUES-THUR LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WINDOW FOR
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WE'LL BE SITTING ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THIS SURFACE HIGH, HELPING KEEP DAILY WIND
GUSTS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. COUPLE THAT WITH DRY FUELS AND LOW
RH VALUES IN THE 20% RANGE AND WE COULD SEE A FEW DAYS WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE TO ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. OUTSIDE OF
THIS, NEXT WEEK LOOKS PRETTY FANTASTIC FOR EARLY APRIL IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING....
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT THOUGH
THERE ARE ALREADY A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOWER
CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RESTRICTIONS WILL
BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO SOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE CURRENT TAFS. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND THE FORECASTS AS NEEDED. CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT REMAIN HIGH. THE INVERSION SHOULD
BREAK BY LATE MORNING, ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. ADDED VCSH TO
AGS/DNL FOR 18Z TO 00Z WHEN THEY ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ITS INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...7
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