524
FXUS62 KCAE 041855
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW ON SUNDAY,
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS GUSTS TO MIX DOWN IN
DEEPER THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.
- 2. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON,
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. POOR
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER MINIMAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5" AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A 30 TO 40 KT JET AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WITH THE HRRR AND OTHER MODELS BEGINNING TO SHOW STEEPER
0-3KM LAPSE RATES, WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION MIX
SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS DOWN. OVERALL THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND IS LOW BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. POPS ARE HIGH FOR
SUNDAY BUT OVERALL FORECAST PRECIP TOTALS REMAIN PRETTY MODEST,
WITH MODEL PROBABILITIES FAVORING 0.1"-0.25" ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP OUR ONGOING DROUGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
NEXT WEEK.
AS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE AREA WILL NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND, CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES NEXT WEEK. EXTREMELY DRY AIR WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY
EXACERBATE THE ALREADY DRY FUEL SITUATION. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AT ANY POINT NEXT WEEK,
THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD MAKE
WEDNESDAY THE DAY OF HIGHEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS, SOME SUMMER-LIKE CONVECTION
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED AND A MIX OF SHOWERS-STORMS,
INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS FROM 19-23Z.
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER AROUND, JUST BELOW A TAF MENTION.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 5-10
KNOTS AND OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. SCT-BKN SUMMER-LIKE CU
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AROUND 5K FEET. LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY MOVE IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH
MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER-STORM POTENTIAL STARTING AFTER 16Z THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SHARP WIND SHIFT BEHIND SUNDAY'S
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z MONDAY, WITH OTHERWISE DRIER AIR
PUSHING IN WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...42
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