612
FXUS62 KCAE 042350
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
750 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR STRONG WINDS GUSTS TO MIX DOWN IN DEEPER
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.
- 2. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUN.
THE SEA BREEZE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AT THE
MOMENT, COLLIDING WITH A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE
MURRAY, BRINGING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE COLUMBIA METRO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BUT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING, SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH, BRINGING BACK DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE FA TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO NEAR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5" AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND FAIRLY MARGINAL UPPER
SUPPORT WILL BEGIN MOVING IN LATE IN THE MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A 30-40 KT LLJ IS STILL SHOWN DEVELOPING IN
GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE MEAN HREF SOLUTION DEPICTS
AROUND 500-1100 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING WITH 0-3KM LAPSE RATES
NEARING 8.0 C/KM IN HRRR/RRFS SOUNDINGS. DUE TO THIS, THE
OUTLOOK HAS NOT CHANGED ALL TOO MUCH WHERE A COUPLE STRONGER
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD A ROBUST UPDRAFT GET GOING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, BRINGING THE HAZARD OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WINDS. POPS REMAIN HIGH FOR SUNDAY BUT OVERALL FORECAST
PRECIP TOTALS REMAINS PRETTY MODEST, WITH THE LATEST HREF QPF
LPMM GENERALLY SHOWING BEWTEEN 0.10-0.25" ACROSS THE FA WITH
SPOTS UPWARDS OF 0.50" WHERE ANY STRONGER CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP OUR ONGOING DROUGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
NEXT WEEK.
AS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE AREA WILL NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND, CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES NEXT WEEK. EXTREMELY DRY AIR WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY
EXACERBATE THE ALREADY DRY FUEL SITUATION. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AT ANY POINT NEXT WEEK,
THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD MAKE
WEDNESDAY THE DAY OF HIGHEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT MIDLANDS TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL LOCATIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE TAFS BY 00Z, LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING, SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 5- 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR FOG VERY LOW. HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE
THE INVERSION WILL BRING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRATUS DECK,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDLANDS WHERE THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF MAKING IT IN. ANY CEILINGS BELOW 3K
FEET SHOULD TEMPORARILY LIFT BY MID MORNING, BUT CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. IN GENERAL, THE
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOWERING THE CIGS TO MVFR RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS OR A LITTLE MORE AT TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SHARP WIND SHIFT BEHIND SUNDAY'S
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z MONDAY, WITH OTHERWISE DRIER AIR
PUSHING IN WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/CJR
AVIATION...FA
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