982
FXUS62 KCAE 051844
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
244 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUES FAVORING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS MODERATE IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT THIS WEEK.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT.
- 2. INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY MID WEEK WITH A VERY
DRY AIR MASS AND GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDLANDS THAT HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING A BIT, WHILE NEW CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
NORTHEASTWARD WHERE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. FURTHER WEST,
SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.4-1.5 WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN THE BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE
WEATHER, THAT THREAT APPEARS TO BE FURTHER NORTHEAST, BUT ANY
RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA PRECEDING THE FRONT GIVING MOST LOCATION SOME
RAINFALL AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS
OVERPERFORM GUIDANCE FOR QPF GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY MID WEEK WITH
A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND GUSTY WINDS.
A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
MIDWEEK. THIS 1036MB HIGH WOULD BE NEARLY CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX
ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS SUPPORTING DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S
AND 30S RESULTING IN RH VALUES AT CRITICAL VALUES BETWEEN 20-30
PERCENT. THIS PAIRED WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH EACH DAY GIVEN THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL CREATE INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AS AN APPROACHING
FRONT MOVES IN. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
ROUGHLY 20Z DESPITE THESE SHOWERS, BEFORE A MORE CONSOLIDATED
LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON;
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A TAF MENTION. SO CONTINUED A TEMPO FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR THIS LINE, WITHOUT A TSRA MENTION AT
THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS AS THE LINE ROLLS THROUGH IS POSSIBLE
REGARDLESS OF THUNDER, SO ADDITIONALLY INCLUDED SOME GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS. WINDS THEN SWITCH OUT OF THE
WEST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING, OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IS LOW
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...42
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