009
FXUS62 KCAE 060038
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
838 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES REST OF THIS EVENING. BETTER MIXING
BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW MAY ALLOW DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT
SLIGHTLY BETTER. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER THREAT THIS WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
00Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
- 2. INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY MID WEEK WITH A VERY
DRY AIR MASS AND GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
PER THE 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW
WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH DEW POINTS BEHIND IT
QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 40S TOWARD THE UPSTATE AND EVENTUALLY
THE 30S FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE LAST
BATCH OF SHOWERS IS PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
SOUTHERN CSRA, BEFORE THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA, USHERING
IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCE TONIGHT.
THERE IS LITTLE SIGNAL FOR RAIN CHANCES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE AREA AND
UPPER RIDGING GENERALLY IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY MID WEEK WITH
A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND GUSTY WINDS.
A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
OVERALL, A LOOK AT 72HR MRMS QPE ACROSS THE FA SHOWS THAT
0.10-0.25" OF RAIN WAS SEEN WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS OVER 0.50"
WHERE CONVECTION MANAGED TO REACH OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
THESE AMOUNTS LIKELY WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HELP OUR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
WEEK HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK
BEFORE THE MID WEEK IS THE LATEST HREF AND RUN OF THE
EXPERIMENTAL NBM 5.0 HAVE SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXING OUT SLIGHTLY
BETTER TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AS DECENT MIXING OCCURS WITH LINGERING CAA IN THE
REGION. BOTH THE 12Z HREF AND LATEST NBM 5.0 HAVE PROBABILITIES
FOR DEW POINTS LESS THAN 32F TOMORROW AFTERNOON BETWEEN 50-70%
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH THESE LOWER DEW POINTS, RH VALUES
DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD NEAR CRITICAL VALUES, BUT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT.
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MIDWEEK. THIS
1036MB HIGH WOULD BE NEARLY CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX ACCORDING TO THE
NAEFS SUPPORTING DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S
RESULTING IN RH VALUES AT CRITICAL VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT.
THIS PAIRED WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN
20-30 MPH INTO THE MID WEEK GIVEN THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL CREATE INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
LAST MEANINGFUL LINE OF SHOWERS HAS CLEARED THE AUGUSTA AND
COLUMBIA TAF SITES, AND WILL PUSH THROUGH OGB IN THE NEXT HOUR.
THERE IS A LONE SHOWER ALONG THE REAL FRONT IN UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA AROUND SUNSET, BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
IMPACTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CIGS
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE, BUT THE
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS ARE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THEY
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF WEST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES LATE
THIS EVENING, THEN VEER TO NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
TURNING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF DUE NORTH
BY MORNING. I DON'T EXPECT THE WINDS TO EXCEED 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF GUSTINESS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IS LOW
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/23
AVIATION...FA
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