351
FXUS62 KCAE 060527
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
127 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE KEY MESSAGES OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE KEY
MESSAGE ABOUT SUNDAY'S RAIN SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 06Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY MID WEEK WITH A VERY
DRY AIR MASS AND GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY MID WEEK WITH
A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR THIS WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ANCHORING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 1A REVEALS AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH EMANATING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A PRESSURE GREATER
THAN 1036 MB. THIS IS A 95TH TO 99TH PERCENTILE SURFACE HIGH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR! AN INITIAL SURGE OF DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY, WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING QUICKLY INTO
THE 30S THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SURGE SHOULD COME
AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSE SURFACE HIGH MENTIONED
BEFORE. PWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 40-60% OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL, INDICATIVE OF THIS DRY AIRMASS. WE'LL BE
SITUATED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH, WITH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENING UP ON WEDNESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CRITICAL RH VALUES BELOW 25% EACH DAY AND WINDS
THAT SHOULD BE GUSTING ABOVE 20-25 MPH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS IS AUGMENTED BY OUR
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SO BE CAUTIOUS IF BURNS ARE PLANNED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS! BY THURSDAY, MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MINIMUM RH VALUES EACH DAY,
HELPING TO ALLEVIATE MOST OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED....
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT OGB WHICH SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IS LOW
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...7
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