219
FXUS62 KCAE 071801
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
201 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.
A WEAK TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS PRODUCING SOME WIDESPREAD
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON; THE BACK EDGE OF THE
WATER VAPOR PLUME IS MOVING ACROSS GA AS OF 2PM. AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH DIGS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BEHIND THIS TROUGH, A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, LEADING TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE BLENDED PROBABILITY OF MAX GUSTS GREATER
THAN 30 MPH WEDNESDAY IS ABOVE 50 PERCENT. FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WEDNESDAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20, BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT
LOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MOISTURE INCREASE, LIMITING
FIRE CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH SOMETIMES MODELS TEND TO BE A BIT TOO
QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OF SOME
LINGERING FIRE DANGER INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES RISING TO
NEAR AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS PERSIST WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WINDS AFTER 09Z FROM THE NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AFTER
SUNRISE, WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 24 KNOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IS LOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...23
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