026
FXUS62 KCAE 072330
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
730 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DUE TO THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR TOMORROW, A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION, THE SCFC IS ISSUING A
RED FLAG FIRE ALERT BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE, ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO
GENERALLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, SENDING A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING VERY DRY AIR (RH
VALUES AROUND 25%) INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS (20-30
MPH), LEADING TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE, A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FOR TOMORROW. THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION ALSO
ANNOUNCED THAT THEY WILL BE ISSUING A RED FLAG FIRE ALERT
BEGINNING AT 6 A.M. TOMORROW. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WITH ANY
ACTIVITY THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
MOISTURE INCREASE, LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH SOMETIMES
MODELS TEND TO BE A BIT TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN SO NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OF SOME LINGERING FIRE DANGER INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES RISING TO
NEAR AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AFTER 10Z, GENERALLY AROUND
5-10 KNOTS. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS BENEATH A HIGH CIRRUS DECK.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IS LOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...ND
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