127
FXUS62 KCAE 081033
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MARION THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
- 2. LAKE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR LAKE MARION THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAD TO
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE BUT THIS WILL NOT QUITE LINE UP WITH
THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, WHICH WILL LIKELY PREVENT RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN
PLACE FOR TODAY FOR BREEZY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPPING TO
AROUND 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD
TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND A LOWER FIRE WEATHER RISK, EVEN WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LAKE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR LAKE MARION THIS
MORNING.
THE FRONT MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE 1 WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS
ON LAKE MARION THIS MORNING WITH HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT
925MB WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN
AREA. A WEAK INVERSION WILL BREAK BY AROUND 4 AM OVER THE LAKE
WITH INCREASED MIXING LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH AT TIMES. THE 925MB-850MB JET WILL WEAKEN INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND WHILE BREEZY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY....
WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND MIDDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IS LOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ031-037-038-137.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...7
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