485
FXUS62 KCAE 091037
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY DAY WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD TO
FEATURE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NAEFS MEAN INDICATES 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE AMONG
BLENDED GUIDANCE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIMITED
SPREAD IN THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING DAILY RECORD VALUES. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF PWATS LESS THAN 1 INCH BASED ON THE LREF, RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
A DRY AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE RAINFALL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD WITH RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST FROM 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY, THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
SHALLOW MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO TYPICAL,
BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS AT AGS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT CHANCES
ARE LOW. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A RESTRICTION-FREE FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ARE LOW THROUGH MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...CJR
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