995
FXUS62 KCAE 091707
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
107 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK AHEAD. THE
REST OF THURSDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY WITHIN THE FORECAST
PERIOD TO FEATURE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, BEFORE STRONG
RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHEAST STEADILY BUILDS HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NAEFS MEAN INDICATES
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY THE WEEKEND
AND THEN THE 99TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK;
EVEN THE 5TH PERCENTILE IN THE LREF WOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. EC EFI IS CONSISTENT WITH A HIGH EFI - LOW SOT,
SUGGESTING NEAR RECORD HIGHS BUT GENERALLY UNLIKELY TO BREAK
ANY. SO NEEDLESS TO SAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS, FROM MONDAY ONWARD. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING AND
A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF PWATS LESS THAN
1 INCH BASED ON THE LREF, RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY EXACERBATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE TAKING OVER THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST
TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 7-9 KTS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
THESE WINDS CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES
LIKELY CONTINUING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SOME TONIGHT
UNDER AN INVERSION AS SEEN IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND THIS
BRINGS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG AT THE USUAL FOG PRONE
SITES OF AGS/OGB. THE PROBABILITY FOR THIS REMAINS LOW (UNDER
20%) AS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE, HREF/REFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AND LAMP
GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. AFTER DAYBREAK
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD, BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS REMAINS LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...DH
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