957
FXUS62 KCAE 100727
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
327 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS IN UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
WEEKEND, CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. BY TUESDAY,
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. PROBABILITY OF MAX TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90F WILL
BE HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK (GENERALLY GREATER
THAN 60%). THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS APPROACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING AND A DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF PWATS LESS THAN 1 INCH
BASED ON THE LREF, RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY, WINDS DIMINISH AND
WILL BE GENERALLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT TEND TOWARDS NE WINDS IN THE MORNING, WITH A WEAK
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY THE AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. FOG PRONE AGS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER THE SHALLOW FOG TYPICAL AT AGS IS UNLIKELY TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AVIATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...CJR
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