523
FXUS62 KCAE 101134
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
734 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS IN UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
WEEKEND, CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. BY TUESDAY,
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. PROBABILITY OF MAX TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90F WILL
BE HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK (GENERALLY GREATER
THAN 60%). THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS APPROACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING AND A DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF PWATS LESS THAN 1 INCH
BASED ON THE LREF, RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES LIKELY
REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 5 KTS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND COULD BE A BIT VARIABLE, THOUGH COULD TREND A
BIT TOWARDS NE AT TIMES. TONIGHT, SOME PASSING CIRRUS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE REGION, AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR
TYPICAL SHALLOW FOG AT AGS/OGB, BUT THIS SEEM RATHER UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY CONTINUING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...DH
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