049
FXUS62 KCAE 101706
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
106 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE BY MID-WEEK.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION AND,
THANKS TO LOW PWAT'S, STRONG DIURNAL HEATING EACH DAY PUSHING
TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80'S BOTH SATURDAY-SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, LASTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. SYNOPTICALLY AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS AN
IDEAL SETUP FOR POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT, REINFORCING SOUTHWESTERLY
WARM ADVECTION. NAEFS AND ECE BROADLY SHOW A 99TH PERCENTILE
AIRMASS FOR TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. EC EFI HAS
TRENDED MORE EXTREME IN EFI NEAR 1.0 AND SOT OVER 2, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING TEMPS BY LATE WEEK, AS HAS THE
NBM, WITH THE FORECAST MEAN NOW IN THE MID-90'S BY THURSDAY.
GIVEN THE ALREADY DRY SOILS AND SIGNIFICANT MODEL CONSENSUS,
SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE DEFINITELY IN PLAY AS IS THE ALL
TIME APRIL RECORD HIGH OF 96 F (1896).
NO RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND THE ECE-GEFS AND
THEIR AI ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS CONTINUE THE DRY STRETCH WELL
BEYOND 7 DAYS. SO DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE APRIL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS THAT AT
TIMES HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE NE TO ENE, BUT ARE FAIRLY SQUIRRELY.
THESE WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM
OVERNIGHT AS FEW TO SCT CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR TYPICAL SHALLOW FOG NEAR AGS/OGB, BUT CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
15% AT THIS TIME AND ANY THAT COULD DEVELOP DOES NOT LOOK TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS SATURDAY
MORNING, WINDS BRIEFLY PICK UP TO AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE WNW
TO NW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW IN THE EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...DH
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