031
FXUS62 KCAE 111009
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
609 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH DRY, WARM WEATHER STILL
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH NORTHWESTERLY
DEEP LAYER FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER. AS THE AXIS OF THIS
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, OVER THE FORECAST AREA, NAEFS MEAN INDICATE
THE 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE. A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL IN NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH EFI FOR
MAX T ABOVE 0.9 TO NEAR 1.0 AND SHIFT OF TAILS GENERALLY TRENDING
UPWARD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SIGNAL INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL TO BE NEAR THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR APRIL (96 FOR BOTH COLUMBIA AND
AUGUSTA).
NO RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND THE ECE-GEFS AND THEIR
AI ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS CONTINUE THE DRY STRETCH WELL BEYOND 7
DAYS. SO DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH AT LEAST LATE APRIL.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BRIEF PERIODS OF SHALLOW FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT
AGS AND OGB. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE INCREASES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WE MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SHALLOW FOG AT FOG PRONE
AGS AND/OR OGB DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z EACH MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW IN THE EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...CJR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page