592
FXUS62 KCAE 111707
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
107 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH DRY, WARM WEATHER STILL
EXPECTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS, CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS, CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE INDICATING THAT A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS UPPER RIDGE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MODEL
MEANS SHOWING THE 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE
STILL, ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES EITHER AROUND NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING VERY HOT AND CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA. BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHT WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RANGE OF HIGHS MOSTLY
WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES F EACH AFTERNOON. IF THE TREND HOLDS, CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RECORD HIGH DAILY TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL
AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS SITUATED OVER THE REGION, GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW NO RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, SO IT WOULD APPEAR AS
IF THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE APRIL..
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW TO NNW WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE, DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO PICK UP TO AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SE TO S BY 15Z
AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN
THE EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAL
AVIATION...ND
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