632
FXUS62 KCAE 121038
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS, CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS, CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
BROAD UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BRINGING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY IS ABOUT THE ONLY DAY
WITH SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A
NOTABLE FOG-STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE PIVOTING
RIDGE. HOWEVER, EVEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
CLOUD COVER STILL MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON, SO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS LIKELY EITHER WAY. BEYOND MONDAY, NEAR RECORD HIGHS WITH
MULTIPLE DAYS ABOVE 90 F ARE LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NAEFS AND EC EFI ARE CONSISTENT ACROSS THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
SUITES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS
AND TEMPS ALOFT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT AGS AND POSSIBLY
OGB.
SHALLOW FOG AT AGS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z OR 16Z BEFORE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 7-10 KTS. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
18 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH A FEW
CUMULUS AS WELL.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SE FLOW. THE
CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FEW NIGHTS WHICH WERE LIMITED TO THE TYPICAL SHALLOW FOG AT THE
FOG-PRONE SITES. A 10 TO 20 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASED
HIGH-CLOUD COVER FAVORS STRATUS OVER FOG BUT BOTH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT AGS AND OGB. MODELS ARE NOT BULLISH ON
ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE HRRR INDICATING ONLY SCATTERED
CLOUDS. BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG ARE MORE HIGHLY FAVORED CLOSER
TO THE COAST. AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN
THE EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...CJR
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