436
FXUS62 KCAE 121735
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS, CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS, CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOTH CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. BOTH OF THESE
WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST, LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE
UPPER RIDGE SOME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT BEHIND IT THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD RIGHT BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE AREA APPEARS TO REMAIN TOO
DRY FOR ANY CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
RIGHT NOW. EVEN WITH THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK, BEST
MOISTURE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES START OFF THE WEEK IN THE 80S, WITH GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING SOME MORNING STRATUS OR FOG POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. ADDITIONAL HEAT WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, REACHING INTO THE 90S BY MID-WEEK, THEN POSSIBLY THE
MIDDLE 90S BY THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT NEAR RECORD HIGHS
WITH THIS PATTERN. BLENDS STILL SHOWING EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE S TO SE AT AROUND 7-10 KTS WITH A
FEW LOW-END GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW CUMULUS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT UNDER S TO SE FLOW. THE
CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FEW NIGHTS WHICH WERE LIMITED TO THE TYPICAL SHALLOW FOG AT THE
FOG-PRONE SITES. A 10 TO 20 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASED
HIGH-CLOUD COVER FAVORS STRATUS OVER FOG BUT BOTH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT AGS AND OGB. THE NAM MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE HRRR INDICATING ONLY SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND KEEPING FOG/LOW CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST. AT THIS TIME, I
PUT SCT AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE UPDATED TAFS TO SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS OCCURRING ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 09 TO 15Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-DAY OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK, THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS REMAINS
LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAL
AVIATION...ND
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