695
FXUS62 KCAE 130658
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
258 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS, CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS, CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
BROAD UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BRINGING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. TODAY IS ABOUT THE ONLY DAY
WITH SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, ALBEIT QUITE SMALL, WITH SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE PIVOTING RIDGE. DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK MIXES OUT COULD SHIFT HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW
DEGREES EITHER WAY, IN THE LOW-MID 80'S. BEYOND TODAY, NEAR
RECORD HIGHS WITH MULTIPLE DAYS ABOVE 90 F ARE LIKELY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. NAEFS AND EC EFI ARE CONSISTENT ACROSS THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE SUITES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND EXTREMELY
ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN
OR EVEN A FRONT OF ANY SORT IS LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BRIEF EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE LED TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT
THE AIR MASS AS A WHOLE REMAINS VERY DRY. SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS AND A 30 KT LLJ SHOWN ON THE
KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG.
HOWEVER WE CANNOT RULE OUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT FOG-PRONE
AGS AND OGB. ANY IFR/MVFR STRATO-CU OR FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 15Z.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE S OR SSW AFTER 15Z WITH SPEEDS
FROM 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR MASS WILL
HINDER CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER 30 KT LLJ AND DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF ANY FOG OR STRATUS THAT DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK, THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS REMAINS
LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...CJR
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