280
FXUS62 KCAE 142350
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
750 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- 2. CONTINUED WITH A LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY, BUT
RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED.
- 3. REFRESHINGLY COOLER BUT VERY DRY START TO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
GETTING HARDER TO SAY THE SAME THINGS, BUT REALITY IS THERE IS
NOT MUCH THAT HAS CHANGED. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY THE BEST
MOISTURE TRACKS NORTHWARD WITH THAT UPPER TROUGH. THE RIDGE
THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. THIS CONTINUES TO KEEP HOT
AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND CAN NOT RULE OUT APPROACHING OR
BREAKING A DAILY RECORD HIGH AT SOME POINT. HOTTEST DAYS SHOULD
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH GUIDANCE INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
90S FOR MOST AREAS. I GUESS ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, THE LATEST
BLENDS APPEAR TO KEEP THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD BELOW THE ALL TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS, WHICH ARE 96
DEGREES AT BOTH COLUMBIA, SC AND AUGUSTA, GA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CONTINUED WITH A LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
SUNDAY, BUT RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED.
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY AS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO BRING WIDESPREAD NEEDED RAIN. WHAT MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED AND RATHER LIGHT
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING THIS STILL APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MIDLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE
CSRA POTENTIALLY REMAINING DRY WITH THIS FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: REFRESHINGLY COOLER BUT VERY DRY START TO NEXT
WEEK.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A BREAK FROM THE SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR AS A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION TO START OFF NEXT WEEK. WE GO FROM TEMPERATURES BEING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, TO READINGS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR A BIT. IN
ADDITION, A RETURN OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING
WITH THIS AIRMASS. HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK WILL
POTENTIALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER. THERE ISN'T MUCH ELSE TO SAY, THIS FORECAST WILL
BE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. ANOTHER 20 KNOT
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 KNOTS. AGS/OGB MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
GROUND FOG AS THEY HAVE THIS WEEK BUT IT IS BASICALLY A COIN
FLIP AS TO WHETHER THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT
AT BAY OR NOT. ADDED A GENERIC TEMPO GROUP TO BOTH SITES FOR 3SM
AND SCT003 JUST TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. AS WE GET INTO
TOMORROW, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MIX DOWN WITH WINDS OF 10 KNOTS
OR SO EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
REMAINS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...PL
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