521
FXUS62 KCAE 151734
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
134 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OVERALL, BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE INCREASING FOR THE WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- 2. A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND BRINGS INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
- 3. REFRESHINGLY COOLER BUT VERY DRY START TO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED AS A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBTROPICAL
SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. LITTLE DAY-TO-
DAY CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED, WITH TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY RISING
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THESE VALUES WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. SEVERAL DAILY RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED
OR TIED, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THAT SAID, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TIME, SO
WHILE SOME DAILY RECORDS ARE IN PLAY, THE APRIL RECORD OF 96 IN
COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF NO
RAINFALL AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WORSEN
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND BRINGS INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL.
THERE REMAINS LIMITED CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES, BUT THE BIGGER IMPACT LOOKS TO BE INCREASED FIRE DANGER
ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20-30% RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NEAR CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
SATURDAY SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY AS GUSTS REACH
20-30 MPH AT TIMES TO END THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH SOME
FOR MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3: REFRESHINGLY COOLER BUT VERY DRY START TO NEXT
WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST EVOLUTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THE
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS AN 80% OR GREATER CHANCE OF
HIGHS TOPPING OUT BELOW AVERAGE ON MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL
WARMUP INTO TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE STRETCH OF
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS, THESE TEMPS MIGHT FEEL ON THE COOL SIDE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PASSING THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING,
PERHAPS THICKENING A BIT OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING SCT-BKN AT
TIMES. HOWEVER, CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH NO IMPACTS AT THE
TERMINALS. SFC WINDS REMAIN SLY/SWLY AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS AND
GUSTS DIMINISH DIURNALLY OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 KTS, THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE AIRMASS REMAINING QUITE DRY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS REMAINING
LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/29
AVIATION...EC
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