582
FXUS62 KCAE 160630
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
230 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- 2. A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND BRINGS INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
- 3. REFRESHINGLY COOLER BUT VERY DRY START TO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE- NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.
LITTLE DAY-TO- DAY CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED, WITH TEMPERATURES
CONSISTENTLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THESE VALUES WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-15
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. SEVERAL DAILY
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED OR TIED, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS STEADILY TRENDED A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AS THIS FORECAST HAS UNFOLDED, TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE, SO DEPENDING
ON HOW THIS TREND PLAYS OUT, THE APRIL MONTHLY RECORD OF 96 F
AT CAE AND AGS COULD BE IN PLAY ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND BRINGS INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL.
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WEAK SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT ANY PRECIP
LOOKS LIGHT WITH EVEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS SHOWING
LESS 0.25"; THE ECE AND NAEFS MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH ONLY ~15%
CHANCE OF OVER 0.1" FOR THE AREA.
THE MORE NOTABLE IMPACT LOOKS TO BE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ONCE
AGAIN, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20-30% RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
SATURDAY SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY AS GUSTS REACH
20-30 MPH AT TIMES TO END THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH SOME
FOR MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3: REFRESHINGLY COOLER BUT VERY DRY START TO NEXT
WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST EVOLUTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THE
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS AN 80% OR GREATER CHANCE OF
HIGHS TOPPING OUT BELOW AVERAGE ON MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL
WARMUP INTO TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE STRETCH OF
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS, THESE TEMPS MIGHT FEEL ON THE COOL SIDE.
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS, EVEN WITH SOME RAINFALL POSSIBLE
SUNDAY, MEANS DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.
THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS. LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD INCREASE BY MID MORNING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AGAIN WITH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF
MORNING RIVER FOG AT AGS/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS REMAINING
LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...23
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