269
FXUS62 KCAE 171040
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS SOME VARIATION OF HOT
AND DRY OR SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY. THE PATTERN IS QUITE BLAND
FOR ANY KIND OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY. TODAY' WE'LL BE
SORT OF POST COLD FRONTAL AS A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW, HIGH HEIGHTS, AND 90TH
PERCENTILE 850 HPA TEMPS WILL PROMOTE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AGAIN
TODAY. ON SATURDAY, TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED DAILY RECORDS AT
BOTH AGS AND CAE, AND MAY APPROACH THE MONTHLY RECORD OF 96F AT
BOTH SITES. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE EXCEED 96F BUT THE
COMBINATION OF 95TH PERCENTILE 850 HPA TEMPS + HEATING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT + A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN RECORD
WARMTH SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ON SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING IT AS IT PASSES.
THIS IS A SIGNAL FOR A "HIGH" POP/LOW QPF EVENT, BUT IT BARELY
PASSES THAT MARK. IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE POPS DECREASE
FROM THEIR LOW MARK OF THE 30-40% RANGE RIGHT NOW, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CLOSER TO THE NC BORDER. A MUCH MORE
SEASONAL AIRMASS (70S FOR HIGHS) ARRIVES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK,
WARMING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
MOST IMPACTFUL PART OF ALL OF THIS REMAINS THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THAT WE ARE IN AND THE PERSISTENT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THAT WE HAVE. THOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNALS
FOR AN OVERLAP OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES, MIN RH VALUES
EVERY DAY (EXCEPT SUNDAY) ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20-25% RANGE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SC HAS IMPLEMENTED A BURN BAN
THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. PLEASE AVOID BURNING AS
EVEN SMALL BURNS CAN BECOME A PROBLEM WITH HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
6 TO 8 KNOTS AND SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AFTER 17Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN WITH SUNSET. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
PROHIBIT FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO BRIEF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY BUT
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...23
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